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The IEA held a series of three seminars between May 1996 and October 1997 on the insights from modelling relevant to energy and climate change. The seminars brought together key analysts, government and business experts, and policy makers from IEA member countries directly involved with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The participants' contributions and insights deserve strong acknowledgement. Modelling offers an indispensable analytical tool to evaluate how energy systems could best respond to restrictions on carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions, and to identify the most cost-effective and resilient policy instruments to reach these goals. It can provide key perceptions for analysis of comprehensive packages of economic and non-economic policy instruments within a consistent framework. This book maps the main approaches of energy modelling, their assumptions and their logic, to help policy makers and non-modellers understand and use its contributions. The text draws on papers prepared for the seminars by the IEA Secretariat, presentations given by participants and some general insights which emerged on economic modelling of climate change. In line with the main objective of the seminars, it avoids 'peer review' of different climate change models or specific policy suggestions, attempting instead to bridge the gap between modelling and policy making.

Alex Cowie As the twentieth century draws to a close, one of our greatest problems is the availability of energy. One way to study the energy problem is to resolve it into four areas: energy demand, energy sources, transportation of energy from sources to demand centers, and the optimal allocation of energy forms to demands. Each of these areas is extremely complex by itself. When efforts are made to tie them together, for example, to produce a National Policy, the complexities are compounded. Another way to study the energy problem, because of its political and social consequences, is to resolve it into geographical areas. Individual provinces of Canada or states of the United States will have their concerns about energy within their geographical boundaries. As producer, consumer, or both, each wants to ensure an energy development program which will work to the maximum benefit of its citizens. Similarly, countries endeavor to protect their citizens and undertake energy policies that will assure either a continuation of the existing quality of life or - particularly in the case of "Third World" countries - a marked improvement in quality of life. These competing and conflicting goals call for a study which encompasses the whole world. Again, complexity is piled upon complexity. If the prob lem is not yet sufficiently complex, there is an equally complex question of the effect of energy production and use on the ecology.

Energy plays a vital role in economic and social development. The analysis of energy issues and policy options is therefore a vital area of study. This book presents a hierarchical modelling scheme intended to support energy planning and policy analysis in developing countries. The authors introduce the concept of 'Integrated National energy Planning' (INEP), and examine the spreadsheet models, optimization models, and linear planning models which energy planners use. Environmental considerations are also introduced into the analysis. Techniques are then applied to two important energy subsectors, electricity and fuelwood, before problems of integration and policy implementation are discussed. Throughout the book, the authors examine actual practice in developing countries. Illustrative case material is drawn from Egypt, West Africa, Sudan, Pakistan, Colombia, India, Sri Lanka and Morocco. This book will be of interest to students and practitioners of energy planning, and to those concerned with the wider development implications of energy policy.

The Advanced Research Institute (ARI) on "The Application of Systems Science to Energy Policy Planning" was held under the auspices of the NATO Special Programme Panel on Systems Science in collaboration with the National Center for Analysis of Energy Sys tems, Brookhaven National Laboratory, USA, as a part of the NATO Science Committee's continuous effort to promote the advancement of science through international cooperation. Advanced Research Institutes are sponsored by the NATO Science Committee for the purposes of bringing together senior scientists to seek consensus on an assessment of the present state of knowl edge on a specific topic and to make recommendations for future research directions. Meetings are structured to encourage inten sive group discussion. Invitees are carefully selected so that the group as a whole will contain the experience and expertise neces sary to make the conclusions valid and significant. A final report is published presenting the various viewpoints and conclusions. The NATO Systems Science Panel noted that the systems approach is increasingly being applied to energy policy analysis and plan ning in both public and private sectors of national economies. Consequently, it seemed appropriate at this time to bring together experts to review and evaluate recent experience, in order to iden tify strengths and weaknesses in current prac tice, and to make recommendations for research directions.

This book addresses the process and actions for developing enhanced capabilities to analyze energy policy issues and perform strategic planning activities at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) on an ongoing basis. Within the broader context of useful analytical and modeling capabilities within and outside the DOE, this volume examines the requirements that a National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) should fulfill, presents an overall architecture for a NEMS, identifies data needs, and outlines priority actions for timely implementation of the system.

The roles and applications of various modeling approaches, aimed at improving the usefulness of energy policy models in public decision making, are covered by this book. The development, validation, and applications of system dynamics and agent-based models in service of energy policy design and assessment in the 21st century is a key focus. A number of modeling approaches and models for energy policy, with a particular focus on low-carbon economic development of regions and states are covered. Chapters on system dynamics methodology, model-based theory, fuzzy system dynamics frame-work, and optimization modeling approach are presented, along with several chapters on future research opportunities for the energy policy modeling community. The use of model-based analysis and scenarios in energy policy design and assessment has seen phenomenal growth during the past several decades. In recent years, renewed concerns about climate change and energy security have posed unique modeling challenges. By utilizing the validation techniques and procedures which are effectively demonstrated in these contributions, researchers and practitioners in energy systems domain can increase the appeal and acceptance of their policy models.

Energy Modelling Studies and Conservation documents the proceedings of seminar of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe held in Washington D.C., on 24-28 March 1980. The volume begins with a Seminar Theme Paper that identifies background policy issues that lead to modeling; discusses points of view involved in energy policy modeling; defines the context of a set of energy conservation problems or questions being analyzed; and provides a forward-looking view of the subject and its problems. This is followed by 54 papers that are organized into three main topics: (1) energy models of major interest to individual countries; (2) the interaction between energy conservation measures and the economy; and (3) the international aspects of energy conservation models. The papers on Topic 1 cover forecasting methodologies, demand and conservation studies, and electricity and supply studies. The papers on Topic 2 present the experiences in countries such as Norway, UK, the USSR, and US. The papers on Topic 3 include studies on energy conservation policies in France, Germany, and Italy; and the MARKAL multi-period linear programming model for joint research and development in the field of new energy technologies of the 17 countries of the International Energy Agency.

A Simple Model of Electric Power Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Power flow equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Social welfare action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 A Market Mechanism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 An efficient trading rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Competitive equilibrium and social optimum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 A Dynamic Trading Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 An Illustrative Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Alternative Implementation Plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Chapter 5: The Berlin Mandate: The Design ofCost-Effictive Mitigation Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 The Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Future Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 The Costs of Alternative Commitments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Some Final Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Chapter 6: Some Implications of Improved CO] Emissions Control Technology in The Context of Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 The CET A-R Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Economic system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Climate system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Uncertain losses from temperature rise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Technology Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 Implications of Loss Probability and Technology Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Improved Technology and the Value of Infonnation About Damage . . . . . . . . . . . 94 Value of Information about Technology and Benefits of Improved Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Sununary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Chapter 7: Determining an Optimal Afforestation Policy: A Cost-Benefit Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Introduction - Motivation and afforestation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Afforesting and halting deforestation: domestic verses global solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . l 01 Research Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . l 02 Integrated assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 Time horizon and discounting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Carbon sequestration time path . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . l 03 vi Interactions with other markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Structural Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . l 04 Traditional timberland module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Afforestation module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Timber market module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . l 08 Sequestration calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 bjective function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Regionalization and Model Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 Southern submodel data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Pacific submodel data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Microeconomic Modeling and Policy Analysis: Studies in Residential Energy Demand analyzes the aggregates and distributional impacts from alternative energy polices related to the energy demands of residential consumers. The book also analyzes the use of micro-simulation models in the study. The book examines three alternative energy policies and their possible impacts on the residential energy demand. The text describes models on energy use including general micro-simulation and micro-simulation as applied in ""Residential End-Use Energy Planning Systems"" (REEPS) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Residential Energy Consumption Model. The book describes REEPS as a model providing end-use specific forecasts of energy consumption at the household level. The text describes ORNL as a computationally simpler design but conceptually more complex one. The book then evaluates three different policy scenarios using each of these two models. The performance of REEPS and ORNL, as well as other dimensions of model projections, is examined. The implications regarding 1) policy analysis and 2) the use of micro simulation models are noted. The book then presents a table that summarizes the results of the comparative model evaluation. Energy policymakers, city and local government planning officials, development engineers, and environmentalists will find this book very relevant.

Provides potential users of the Nat. Energy Modeling System under development a detailed look at the components of the new modeling system, and affords the opportunity for critical analysis of the system by recognized experts in the modeling field and input from potential users about how the system can best address their needs. Covers: oil and gas, renewable fuels, electricity planning, petroleum markets, gas transmission and distribution, coal supply and coal synthetics, transport. demand, oil supply, and more. Charts and tables. Over 80 presentations.

Using a system dynamics approach, this book illustrates the physics of fundamental accumulation processes (stocks and flows) across the demand and supply sectors of energy systems. Examples of system dynamics simulation models are presented where these accumulation processes are driving the behavior of the system. Based on these modeling efforts, two cases (the socio-economic and environmental implications of the energy policy of Pakistan and the dynamics of green power in Ontario, Canada) are analyzed and discussed. By studying the dynamics of the fundamental structures of an energy system, the reader gains an enhanced understanding of the stocks and flows of complex systems as well as their role in energy policy. This book is of use to managers and practitioners, teachers, researchers, and students of design and assessment of policy making for complex, dynamic energy systems.