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Irrational Exuberance

Irrational Exuberance
Revised and Expanded Third Edition

by Robert J. Shiller

  • Publisher : Princeton University Press
  • Release : 2015-01-25
  • Pages : 392
  • ISBN : 1400865530
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Why the irrational exuberance of investors hasn't disappeared since the financial crisis In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008–9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets—and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context. In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity—and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read this book.

Irrational Exuberance

Irrational Exuberance
A Book

by Robert J. Shiller

  • Publisher : Princeton Univ Department of Art &
  • Release : 2000
  • Pages : 296
  • ISBN : 9780691050621
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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An expert on market volatility shows that the value of the stock market may be significantly inflated and urges cautious optimism, predicting that the market may show poorer performance in the future.

Irrational Exuberance

Irrational Exuberance
(Second Edition)

by Robert J. Shiller

  • Publisher : Princeton University Press
  • Release : 2009-02-09
  • Pages : 336
  • ISBN : 9781400824366
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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This first edition of this book was a broad study, drawing on a wide range of published research and historical evidence, of the enormous stock market boom that started around 1982 and picked up incredible speed after 1995. Although it took as its specific starting point this ongoing boom, it placed it in the context of stock market booms generally, and it also made concrete suggestions regarding policy changes that should be initiated in response to this and other such booms. The book argued that the boom represents a speculative bubble, not grounded in sensible economic fundamentals. Part one of the book considered structural factors behind the boom. A list of twelve precipitating factors that appear to be its ultimate causes was given. Amplification mechanisms, naturally-occurring Ponzi processes, that enlarge the effects of these precipitating factors, were described. Part Two discussed cultural factors, the effects of the news media, and of "new era" economic thinking. Part Three discussed psychological factors, psychological anchors for the market and herd behavior. Part Four discussed attempts to rationalize exuberance: efficient markets theory and theories that investors are learning. Part Five presented policy options and actions that should be taken. The second edition, 2005, added an analysis of the real estate bubble as similar to the stock market bubble that preceded it, and warned that "Significant further rises in these markets could lead, eventually, to even more significant declines. The bad outcome could be that eventual declines would result in a substantial increase in the rate of personal bankruptcies, which could lead to a secondary string of bankruptcies of financial institutions as well. Another long-run consequence could be a decline in consumer and business confidence, and another, possibly worldwide, recession." Thus, the second edition of this book was among the first to warn of the global financial crisis that began with the subprime mortgage debacle in 2007

Narrative Economics

Narrative Economics
How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events

by Robert J. Shiller

  • Publisher : Princeton University Press
  • Release : 2019-10
  • Pages : 400
  • ISBN : 0691182299
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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"Economists have long based their forecasts on financial aggregates such as price-earnings ratios, asset prices, and exchange rate fluctuations, and used them to produce statistically informed speculations about the future--with limited success. Robert Shiller employs such aggregates in his own forecasts, but has famously complemented them with observations about the influence of mass psychology on certain events. This approach has come to be known as behavioral economics. How can economists effectively capture the effects of psychology and its influence on economic events and change? Shiller attempts to help us better understand how psychology affects events by explaining how popular economic stories arise, how they grow viral, and ultimately how they drive economic developments. After defining narrative economics in the book's preface with allusions to the advent of both the Great Depression and to World War II, Shiller presents an example of a recent economic narrative gone viral in the story of Bitcoin. Next, he explains how narrative economics works with reference to how other disciplines incorporate narrative into their analyses and also to how epidemiology explains how disease goes viral. He then presents accounts of recurring economic narratives, including the gold standard, real estate booms, war and depression, and stock market booms and crashes. He ends his book with a blueprint for future research by economists on narrative economics"--

Animal Spirits

Animal Spirits
How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism

by George A. Akerlof,Robert J. Shiller

  • Publisher : Princeton University Press
  • Release : 2010-02-01
  • Pages : 264
  • ISBN : 1400834724
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The global financial crisis has made it painfully clear that powerful psychological forces are imperiling the wealth of nations today. From blind faith in ever-rising housing prices to plummeting confidence in capital markets, "animal spirits" are driving financial events worldwide. In this book, acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller challenge the economic wisdom that got us into this mess, and put forward a bold new vision that will transform economics and restore prosperity. Akerlof and Shiller reassert the necessity of an active government role in economic policymaking by recovering the idea of animal spirits, a term John Maynard Keynes used to describe the gloom and despondence that led to the Great Depression and the changing psychology that accompanied recovery. Like Keynes, Akerlof and Shiller know that managing these animal spirits requires the steady hand of government--simply allowing markets to work won't do it. In rebuilding the case for a more robust, behaviorally informed Keynesianism, they detail the most pervasive effects of animal spirits in contemporary economic life--such as confidence, fear, bad faith, corruption, a concern for fairness, and the stories we tell ourselves about our economic fortunes--and show how Reaganomics, Thatcherism, and the rational expectations revolution failed to account for them. Animal Spirits offers a road map for reversing the financial misfortunes besetting us today. Read it and learn how leaders can channel animal spirits--the powerful forces of human psychology that are afoot in the world economy today. In a new preface, they describe why our economic troubles may linger for some time--unless we are prepared to take further, decisive action.

Behavioral Finance

Behavioral Finance
Investors, Corporations, and Markets

by H. Kent Baker,John R. Nofsinger

  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • Release : 2010-10-01
  • Pages : 768
  • ISBN : 9780470769683
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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A definitive guide to the growing field of behavioral finance This reliable resource provides a comprehensive view of behavioral finance and its psychological foundations, as well as its applications to finance. Comprising contributed chapters written by distinguished authors from some of the most influential firms and universities in the world, Behavioral Finance provides a synthesis of the most essential elements of this discipline, including psychological concepts and behavioral biases, the behavioral aspects of asset pricing, asset allocation, and market prices, as well as investor behavior, corporate managerial behavior, and social influences. Uses a structured approach to put behavioral finance in perspective Relies on recent research findings to provide guidance through the maze of theories and concepts Discusses the impact of sub-optimal financial decisions on the efficiency of capital markets, personal wealth, and the performance of corporations Behavioral finance has quickly become part of mainstream finance. If you need to gain a better understanding of this topic, look no further than this book.

Stocks for the Long Run, 4th Edition

Stocks for the Long Run, 4th Edition
The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long Term Investment Strategies

by Jeremy J. Siegel

  • Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
  • Release : 2007-12-18
  • Pages : 436
  • ISBN : 0071643923
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Stocks for the Long Run set a precedent as the most complete and irrefutable case for stock market investment ever written. Now, this bible for long-term investing continues its tradition with a fourth edition featuring updated, revised, and new material that will keep you competitive in the global market and up-to-date on the latest index instruments. Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel provides a potent mix of new evidence, research, and analysis supporting his key strategies for amassing a solid portfolio with enhanced returns and reduced risk. In a seamless narrative that incorporates the historical record of the markets with the realities of today's investing environment, the fourth edition features: A new chapter on globalization that documents how the emerging world will soon overtake the developed world and how it impacts the global economy An extended chapter on indexing that includes fundamentally weighted indexes, which have historically offered better returns and lower volatility than their capitalization-weighted counterparts Insightful analysis on what moves the market and how little we know about the sources of big market changes A sobering look at behavioral finance and the psychological factors that can lead investors to make irrational investment decisions A major highlight of this new edition of Stocks for the Long Run is the chapter on global investing. With the U.S. stock market currently holding less than half of the world's equity capitalization, it's important for investors to diversify abroad. This updated edition shows you how to create an “efficient portfolio” that best balances asset allocation in domestic and foreign markets and provides thorough coverage on sector allocation across the globe. Stocks for the Long Run is essential reading for every investor and advisor who wants to fully understand the market-including its behavior, past trends, and future influences-in order to develop a prosperous long-term portfolio that is both safe and secure.

Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2017/2018

Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2017/2018
Foreign Investor Perspectives and Policy Implications

by World Bank Group

  • Publisher : World Bank Publications
  • Release : 2017-10-25
  • Pages : 182
  • ISBN : 1464811857
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The Global Investment Competitiveness report presents new insights and evidence on drivers of foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries, and FDI’s role in development. The report’s survey of 750 executives of multinational corporations finds that a business-friendly legal and regulatory environment is a key driver of investment decisions in developing countries, along with political stability, security, and macroeconomic conditions. The report’s topic-specific chapters explore the potential of FDI to create new growth opportunities for local firms, assess the power of tax holidays and other fiscal incentives to attract FDI, analyze characteristics of FDI originating in developing countries, and examine the experience of foreign investors in countries affected by conflict and fragility. Three key features of this Global Investment Competitiveness report distinguish it from other publications on FDI. First, its insights are based on a combination of first-hand perspectives of investors, extensive analysis of available data and evidence, and international good practices in investment policy design and implementation. Secondly, rather than exploring broad FDI trends, the report provides detailed and unique analysis of FDI depending on its motivation, sector, geographic origin and destination, and phase of investment. Thirdly, the report offers practical and actionable recommendations to policymakers in developing countries wishing to reform their business climates for increased investment competitiveness. As such, the report is meant to complement other knowledge products of the World Bank Group focused even more explicitly on country-level data, detailed reform diagnostics, and presentation of best practices. We are confident this report will bring value and fresh perspectives to a variety of audiences. To governments and policymakers, including investment promotion professionals, the report offers direct insights into the role of government policies and actions in investors’ decision-making. To foreign investors and site location consultants, the report provides information on FDI trends and drivers across sectors and geographies. For academic audiences, the new datasets on investment incentives and FDI motivations enables opportunities for additional research and analysis. Lastly, for development assistance providers and other stakeholders, the report highlights key approaches for maximizing FDI’s benefits for development.

The Efficient Market Hypothesists

The Efficient Market Hypothesists
Bachelier, Samuelson, Fama, Ross, Tobin and Shiller

by Colin Read

  • Publisher : Palgrave Macmillan
  • Release : 2012-12-15
  • Pages : 222
  • ISBN : 0230274218
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Describes the lives, theories, and legacies of six great minds in finance who changed the way we look at financial markets and equilibrium. Bachelier, Samuelson, Fama, Ross, Tobin, and Shiller; proponents and critics of the market efficiency theories who redefined modern finance, creating the foundation on which all financial analysis rests.

Phishing for Phools

Phishing for Phools
The Economics of Manipulation and Deception

by George A. Akerlof,Robert J. Shiller

  • Publisher : Princeton University Press
  • Release : 2016-08-16
  • Pages : 288
  • ISBN : 0691173028
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Why the free-market system encourages so much trickery even as it creates so much good Ever since Adam Smith, the central teaching of economics has been that free markets provide us with material well-being, as if by an invisible hand. In Phishing for Phools, Nobel Prize–winning economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller deliver a fundamental challenge to this insight, arguing that markets harm as well as help us. As long as there is profit to be made, sellers will systematically exploit our psychological weaknesses and our ignorance through manipulation and deception. Rather than being essentially benign and always creating the greater good, markets are inherently filled with tricks and traps and will "phish" us as "phools." Phishing for Phools therefore strikes a radically new direction in economics, based on the intuitive idea that markets both give and take away. Akerlof and Shiller bring this idea to life through dozens of stories that show how phishing affects everyone, in almost every walk of life. We spend our money up to the limit, and then worry about how to pay the next month's bills. The financial system soars, then crashes. We are attracted, more than we know, by advertising. Our political system is distorted by money. We pay too much for gym memberships, cars, houses, and credit cards. Drug companies ingeniously market pharmaceuticals that do us little good, and sometimes are downright dangerous. Phishing for Phools explores the central role of manipulation and deception in fascinating detail in each of these areas and many more. It thereby explains a paradox: why, at a time when we are better off than ever before in history, all too many of us are leading lives of quiet desperation. At the same time, the book tells stories of individuals who have stood against economic trickery—and how it can be reduced through greater knowledge, reform, and regulation.

Dow 100,000 Fact Or Fiction

Dow 100,000 Fact Or Fiction
A Book

by Charles W. Kadlec

  • Publisher : Prentice Hall Press
  • Release : 1999
  • Pages : 295
  • ISBN : 9780735201378
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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A bullish perspective on future markets predicts a decade or more of spectacular prosperity and growth, with the Dow headed for 30,000 and a continual spread of freedom and creativity around the globe.

Governments Quarterly Report

Governments Quarterly Report
Quarterly summary of state and local tax revenue. GT

by Anonim

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 1985
  • Pages : 329
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing

A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing
A Book

by Hersh Shefrin

  • Publisher : Elsevier
  • Release : 2008-05-19
  • Pages : 618
  • ISBN : 9780080482248
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets. It is increasingly becoming the common way of understanding investor behavior and stock market activity. Incorporating the latest research and theory, Shefrin offers both a strong theory and efficient empirical tools that address derivatives, fixed income securities, mean-variance efficient portfolios, and the market portfolio. The book provides a series of examples to illustrate the theory. The second edition continues the tradition of the first edition by being the one and only book to focus completely on how behavioral finance principles affect asset pricing, now with its theory deepened and enriched by a plethora of research since the first edition

Asset Allocation: Balancing Financial Risk

Asset Allocation: Balancing Financial Risk
A Book

by Roger C. Gibson

  • Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
  • Release : 2000-08-22
  • Pages : 317
  • ISBN : 9780071378017
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Financial experts agree: Asset allocation is the key strategies for maintaining a consistent yet superior rate of investment return. Now, Roger Gibson's Asset Allocation - the bestselling reference book on this popular subject for a decade has been updated to keep pace with the latest developments and findings. This Third Edition provides step-by-step strategies for implementing asset allocation in a high return/low risk portfolio, educating financial planning clients on the solid logic behind asset allocation, and more.

The Hour Between Dog and Wolf

The Hour Between Dog and Wolf
How Risk-Taking Transforms Us, Body and Mind

by John Coates

  • Publisher : Random House Canada
  • Release : 2012-05-15
  • Pages : 288
  • ISBN : 0307359697
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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A successful Wall Street trader turned Cambridge neuroscientist reveals the biology of financial boom and bust, showing how risk-taking transforms our body chemistry, driving us to extremes of euphoria or stressed-out depression. The laws of financial boom and bust, it turns out, have a lot to do with male hormones. In a series of startling experiments, Canadian scientist Dr. John Coates identified a feedback loop between testosterone and success that dramatically lowers the fear of risk in men, especially young men; he has vividly dubbed the moment when traders transform into exuberant high flyers "the hour between dog and wolf." Similarly, intense failure leads to a rise in levels of cortisol, which dramatically lowers the appetite for risk. His book expands on his seminal research to offer lessons from the exploding new field studying the biology of risk. Coates's conclusions shed light on all types of high-pressure decision-making, from the sports field to the battlefield, and leaves us with a powerful recognition: to handle risk isn't a matter of mind over body, it's a matter of mind and body working together. We all have it in us to be transformed from dog to wolf; the only question is whether we can understand the causes and the consequences.

Political Bubbles

Political Bubbles
Financial Crises and the Failure of American Democracy

by Nolan McCarty,Keith T. Poole,Howard Rosenthal

  • Publisher : Princeton University Press
  • Release : 2013-05-26
  • Pages : 368
  • ISBN : 0691145016
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Behind every financial crisis lurks a "political bubble"--policy biases that foster market behaviors leading to financial instability. Rather than tilting against risky behavior, political bubbles--arising from a potent combination of beliefs, institutions, and interests--aid, abet, and amplify risk. Demonstrating how political bubbles helped create the real estate-generated financial bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, this book argues that similar government oversights in the aftermath of the crisis undermined Washington's response to the "popped" financial bubble, and shows how such patterns have occurred repeatedly throughout US history. The authors show that just as financial bubbles are an unfortunate mix of mistaken beliefs, market imperfections, and greed, political bubbles are the product of rigid ideologies, unresponsive and ineffective government institutions, and special interests. Financial market innovations--including adjustable-rate mortgages, mortgage-backed securities, and credit default swaps--become subject to legislated leniency and regulatory failure, increasing hazardous practices. The authors shed important light on the politics that blinds regulators to the economic weaknesses that create the conditions for economic bubbles and recommend simple, focused rules that should help avoid such crises in the future. The first full accounting of how politics produces financial ruptures, Political Bubbles offers timely lessons that all sectors would do well to heed.

Contemporary Issues in Macroeconomics

Contemporary Issues in Macroeconomics
Lessons from The Crisis and Beyond

by Joseph E. Stiglitz,Martin Guzman

  • Publisher : Springer
  • Release : 2016-04-29
  • Pages : 203
  • ISBN : 113752958X
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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In this edited collection, Joseph Stiglitz and Martin Guzman present a series of studies on contemporary macroeconomic issues. The book discusses a set of key lessons for macroeconomic theory following the recent global financial crisis and explores unconventional monetary policy in a post-crisis world. This volume is divided into five parts. The introduction includes keynote speeches by the Governors of the Bank of Japan and Central Bank of Jordan. Part one focuses on macroeconomic theory for understanding macroeconomic fluctuations and crises. Part two addresses the issue of the measurement of wealth. Part three discusses macroeconomic policies in times of crises. Finally, part four focuses on central banking and monetary policy.

Statistical Analysis with Excel For Dummies

Statistical Analysis with Excel For Dummies
A Book

by Joseph Schmuller

  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • Release : 2009-04-27
  • Pages : 504
  • ISBN : 0470535423
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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You too can understand the statistics of life, even if you're math-challenged! What do you need to calculate? Manufacturing output? A curve for test scores? Sports stats? You and Excel can do it, and this non-intimidating guide shows you how. It demystifies the different types of statistics, how Excel functions and formulas work, the meaning of means and medians, how to interpret your figures, and more — in plain English. Getting there — learn how variables, samples, and probability are used to get the information you want Excel tricks — find out what's built into the program to help you work with Excel formulas Playing with worksheets — get acquainted with the worksheet functions for each step Graphic displays — present your data as pie graphs, bar graphs, line graphs, or scatter plots What's normal? — understand normal distribution and probability Hyping hypotheses — learn to use hypothesis testing with means and variables When regression is progress — discover when and how to use regression for forecasting What are the odds — work with probability, random variables, and binomial distribution Open the book and find: Ten statistical and graphical tips and traps The difference between descriptive and inferential statistics Why graphs are good How to measure variations What standard scores are and why they're used When to use two-sample hypothesis testing How to use correlations Different ways of working with probability

Foundations of Financial Markets and Institutions

Foundations of Financial Markets and Institutions
A Book

by Frank J. Fabozzi

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2002
  • Pages : 663
  • ISBN : 9780131227347
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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A core text for one-semester courses in Financial Institutions and Markets.This text offers a comprehensive exploration of the revolutionary developments occurring in the world's financial markets and institutions --i.e., innovation, globalization, and deregulation--with a focus on the actual practices of financial institutions, investors, and financial instruments.

Understanding Wall Street

Understanding Wall Street
A Book

by Jeffrey B. Little,Lucien Rhodes

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 1987
  • Pages : 219
  • ISBN : 9780830630202
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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"Over the past quarter century, Understanding Wall Street has helped everyone from rookie investors to Wall Street veterans understand exactly how the market works and how to determine which stocks to buy ... and which to avoid. The fourth edition of this top-selling guide - still as easy-to-read, practical, and comprehensive as the first three - has been completely updated to help investors prosper in today's new, no-limits marketplace."--BOOK JACKET.