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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts
A Book

by Stéphane Vannitsem,Daniel S. Wilks,Jakob Messner

  • Publisher : Elsevier
  • Release : 2018-05-17
  • Pages : 362
  • ISBN : 012812248X
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Advanced Statistical Post-processing of Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Advanced Statistical Post-processing of Ensemble Weather Forecasts
A Book

by S. Allen

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2021
  • Pages : 129
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Statistical Post-Processing Methods And Their Implementation On The Ensemble Prediction Systems For Forecasting Temperature In The Use Of The French Electric Consumption

Statistical Post-Processing Methods And Their Implementation On The Ensemble Prediction Systems For Forecasting Temperature In The Use Of The French Electric Consumption
A Book

by Adriana Geanina Gogonel

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2012
  • Pages : 142
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The thesis has for objective to study new statistical methods to correct temperature predictionsthat may be implemented on the ensemble prediction system (EPS) of Meteo France so toimprove its use for the electric system management, at EDF France. The EPS of Meteo Francewe are working on contains 51 members (forecasts by time-step) and gives the temperaturepredictions for 14 days. The thesis contains three parts: in the first one we present the EPSand we implement two statistical methods improving the accuracy or the spread of the EPS andwe introduce criteria for comparing results. In the second part we introduce the extreme valuetheory and the mixture models we use to combine the model we build in the first part withmodels for fitting the distributions tails. In the third part we introduce the quantile regressionas another way of studying the tails of the distribution.

Ensemble Forecasting Applied to Power Systems

Ensemble Forecasting Applied to Power Systems
A Book

by Antonio Bracale,Pasquale De Falco

  • Publisher : MDPI
  • Release : 2020-03-10
  • Pages : 134
  • ISBN : 303928312X
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Modern power systems are affected by many sources of uncertainty, driven by the spread of renewable generation, by the development of liberalized energy market systems and by the intrinsic random behavior of the final energy customers. Forecasting is, therefore, a crucial task in planning and managing modern power systems at any level: from transmission to distribution networks, and in also the new context of smart grids. Recent trends suggest the suitability of ensemble approaches in order to increase the versatility and robustness of forecasting systems. Stacking, boosting, and bagging techniques have recently started to attract the interest of power system practitioners. This book addresses the development of new, advanced, ensemble forecasting methods applied to power systems, collecting recent contributions to the development of accurate forecasts of energy-related variables by some of the most qualified experts in energy forecasting. Typical areas of research (renewable energy forecasting, load forecasting, energy price forecasting) are investigated, with relevant applications to the use of forecasts in energy management systems.

Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts
A Book

by Anonim

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2006
  • Pages : 32
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Forecast ensembles typically show a spread-skill relationship, but they are also often underdispersive, and therefore uncalibrated. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing method for forecast ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at individual sites. This paper introduces the Spatial BMA technique, which combines BMA and the geostatistical output perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather fields simultaneously, rather than just weather events at individual locations. At any site individually, Spatial BMA reduces to the original BMA technique. The Spatial BMA method provides statistical ensembles of weather field forecasts that take the spatial structure of observed fields into account and honor the flow-dependent information contained in the dynamical ensemble. The members of the Spatial BMA ensemble are obtained by dressing the weather field forecasts from the dynamical ensemble with simulated spatially correlated error fields, in proportions that correspond to the BMA weights for the member models in the dynamical ensemble. Statistical ensembles of any size can be generated at minimal computational costs. The Spatial BMA technique was applied to 48-h forecasts of surface temperature over the North American Pacific Northwest in 2004, using the University of Washington mesoscale ensemble. The Spatial BMA ensemble generally outperformed the BMA and GOP ensembles and showed much better verification results than the raw ensemble, both at individual sites, for weather field forecasts, and for forecasts of composite quantities, such as average temperature in National Weather Service forecast zones and minimum temperature along the Interstate 90 Mountains to Sound Greenway.

Hydrometeorology

Hydrometeorology
Forecasting and Applications

by Kevin Sene

  • Publisher : Springer
  • Release : 2015-12-09
  • Pages : 427
  • ISBN : 331923546X
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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This second edition explores some of the latest techniques used to provide forecasts for a wide range of water-related applications in areas such as floods, droughts, water resources and environmental impacts. The practical uses can range from decisions on whether to issue a flood warning through to providing longer-term advice such as on when to plant and harvest crops or how to operate reservoirs for water supply and hydropower schemes. It provides an introduction to the topic for practitioners and researchers and useful background for courses in areas such as civil engineering, water resources, meteorology and hydrology. As in the first edition, the first section considers topics such as monitoring and forecasting techniques, demand forecasting and how forecasts are interpreted when issuing warnings or advice. Separate chapters are now included for meteorological and catchment monitoring techniques allowing a more in-depth discussion of topics such as weather radar and water quality observations. The chapters on meteorological and hydrological forecasting now include a greater emphasis on rainfall forecasting and ensemble and probabilistic techniques. Regarding the interpretation of forecasts, an updated chapter discusses topics such as approaches to issuing warnings and the use of decision support systems and risk-based techniques. Given the rapid pace of development in flash flood fore casting techniques, flash floods and slower responding riverine floods are now considered in separate chapters. This includes more detail on forecasting floods in large river basins and on methods for providing early warnings of debris flows, surface water flooding and ice jam and dam break floods. Later chapters now include more information on developing areas such as environmental modelling and seasonal flow forecasting. As before examples of operational systems are provided throughout and the extensive sets of references which were a feature of the first edition have been revised and updated. Key themes • floods • droughts • meteorological observations • catchment monitoring • meteorological forecasts • hydrological forecasts • demand forecasts • reservoirs • water resources • water quality • decision support • data assimilation • probabilistic forecasts Kevin Sene is a civil engineer and researcher with wide experience in flood risk management, water resources and hydrometeorology. He has previously published books on flood warning, forecasting and emergency response and flash floods (Springer 2008, 2013).

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
A Book

by Daniel S. Wilks

  • Publisher : Elsevier
  • Release : 2019-06-09
  • Pages : 840
  • ISBN : 0128165278
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Fourth Edition, continues the tradition of trying to meet the needs of students, researchers and operational practitioners. This updated edition not only includes expanded sections built upon the strengths of the prior edition, but also provides new content where there have been advances in the field, including Bayesian analysis, forecast verification and a new chapter dedicated to ensemble forecasting. Provides a strong, yet concise, introduction to applied statistics that is specific to atmospheric science Contains revised and expanded sections on nonparametric tests, test multiplicity and quality uncertainty descriptors Includes new sections on ANOVA, quantile regression, the lasso and other regularization methods, regression trees, changepoint detection, ensemble forecasting and exponential smoothing

Statistical Methods for Post-processing Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Statistical Methods for Post-processing Ensemble Weather Forecasts
A Book

by Robin Mark Williams

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2016
  • Pages : 129
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment

Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment
A Book

by Jan Kleissl

  • Publisher : Academic Press
  • Release : 2013-06-25
  • Pages : 462
  • ISBN : 012397772X
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. Scrutiny from solar project developers and their financiers on the accuracy of long-term resource projections and grid operators’ concerns about variable short-term power generation have made the field of solar forecasting and resource assessment pivotally important. This volume provides an authoritative voice on the topic, incorporating contributions from an internationally recognized group of top authors from both industry and academia, focused on providing information from underlying scientific fundamentals to practical applications and emphasizing the latest technological developments driving this discipline forward. The only reference dedicated to forecasting and assessing solar resources enables a complete understanding of the state of the art from the world’s most renowned experts. Demonstrates how to derive reliable data on solar resource availability and variability at specific locations to support accurate prediction of solar plant performance and attendant financial analysis. Provides cutting-edge information on recent advances in solar forecasting through monitoring, satellite and ground remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction.

Proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Hydro Scheduling in Competitive Electricity Markets

Proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Hydro Scheduling in Competitive Electricity Markets
A Book

by Arild Helseth

  • Publisher : Springer
  • Release : 2018-10-31
  • Pages : 85
  • ISBN : 3030033112
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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This book includes a collection of research articles presented at the “6th International Workshop on Hydro Scheduling in Competitive Electricity Markets”. The workshop was a unique and intimate forum for researchers and practitioners to present state-of-the-art research and development concerning novel methodological findings, best practices and real-life applications of hydro scheduling. It also provided a platform for discussing the developments that are taking place in the industry, sharing different experiences and discussing future trends related to this area. This proceedings book is a collection of the most relevant, high-quality articles from the workshop. Discussing the state-of-the-art in the field of hydro scheduling, it is a valuable resource for a wide audience of researchers and practitioners in the field now and in the interesting and challenging times ahead.

Enhancing the Value of Air Quality Forecasts in the Mid-Atlantic Region Through Use of Ensemble Statistical Post-processing

Enhancing the Value of Air Quality Forecasts in the Mid-Atlantic Region Through Use of Ensemble Statistical Post-processing
A Book

by Gregory George Garner

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2013
  • Pages : 72
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Completing the Forecast

Completing the Forecast
Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts

by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts

  • Publisher : National Academies Press
  • Release : 2006-11-09
  • Pages : 124
  • ISBN : 0309102553
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Renewable Energy: Forecasting and Risk Management

Renewable Energy: Forecasting and Risk Management
Paris, France, June 7-9, 2017

by Philippe Drobinski,Mathilde Mougeot,Dominique Picard,Riwal Plougonven,Peter Tankov

  • Publisher : Springer
  • Release : 2018-12-27
  • Pages : 246
  • ISBN : 3319990527
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Gathering selected, revised and extended contributions from the conference ‘Forecasting and Risk Management for Renewable Energy FOREWER’, which took place in Paris in June 2017, this book focuses on the applications of statistics to the risk management and forecasting problems arising in the renewable energy industry. The different contributions explore all aspects of the energy production chain: forecasting and probabilistic modelling of renewable resources, including probabilistic forecasting approaches; modelling and forecasting of wind and solar power production; prediction of electricity demand; optimal operation of microgrids involving renewable production; and finally the effect of renewable production on electricity market prices. Written by experts in statistics, probability, risk management, economics and electrical engineering, this multidisciplinary volume will serve as a reference on renewable energy risk management and at the same time as a source of inspiration for statisticians and probabilists aiming to work on energy-related problems.

Parameterization Schemes

Parameterization Schemes
Keys to Understanding Numerical Weather Prediction Models

by David J. Stensrud

  • Publisher : Cambridge University Press
  • Release : 2007-05-03
  • Pages : 459
  • ISBN : 0521865409
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Reference on numerical weather prediction for academic researchers, meteorologists, and graduate students.

Weather

Weather
A Concise Introduction

by Gregory J. Hakim,Jérôme Patoux

  • Publisher : Cambridge University Press
  • Release : 2017-12-28
  • Pages : 129
  • ISBN : 1108271278
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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From a world-renowned team at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington, Seattle, Weather: A Concise Introduction is an accessible and beautifully illustrated text covering the foundations of meteorology in a concise, clear, and engaging manner. Designed to provide students with a strong foundation in the physical, dynamical, and chemical processes taking place in the atmosphere, this introductory textbook will appeal to students with a wide range of mathematical and scientific backgrounds. This textbook features: a single case study of a mid-latitude cyclone which is referred to throughout the whole book to illustrate the basic principles driving atmospheric dynamics and phenomena; boxes on more advanced topics; appendices for additional coverage; chapter summaries listing the 'take-home' points discussed; and colour figures and charts illustrating the fundamental concepts. Key terms are evident throughout, and a glossary explains the terms that students will need to understand and become familiar with.

Simultaneous Ensemble Post-processing for Multiple Lead Times with Standardized Anomalies

Simultaneous Ensemble Post-processing for Multiple Lead Times with Standardized Anomalies
A Book

by Markus Dabernig,Georg J. Mayr,Jakob W. Messner,Achim Zeileis

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2016
  • Pages : 129
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions is usually adjusted to a particular lead time so that several models must be fitted to forecast multiple lead times. To increase the coherence between lead times, we propose to use standardized anomalies instead of direct observations and predictions. By subtracting a climatological mean and dividing by the climatological standard deviation, lead-time-specific characteristics are eliminated and several lead times can be forecasted simultaneously. The results show that forecasts between +12 and +120 h can be fitted together with a comparable forecast skill to a conventional method. Furthermore, forecasts can be produced with a temporal resolution as high as the observation interval e.g., up to ten minutes.

Proceedings of the European Conference on Complex Systems 2012

Proceedings of the European Conference on Complex Systems 2012
A Book

by Thomas Gilbert,Markus Kirkilionis,Gregoire Nicolis

  • Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
  • Release : 2013-08-15
  • Pages : 1096
  • ISBN : 331900395X
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The European Conference on Complex Systems, held under the patronage of the Complex Systems Society, is an annual event that has become the leading European conference devoted to complexity science. ECCS'12, its ninth edition, took place in Brussels, during the first week of September 2012. It gathered about 650 scholars representing a wide range of topics relating to complex systems research, with emphasis on interdisciplinary approaches. More specifically, the following tracks were covered: 1. Foundations of Complex Systems 2. Complexity, Information and Computation 3. Prediction, Policy and Planning, Environment 4. Biological Complexity 5. Interacting Populations, Collective Behavior 6. Social Systems, Economics and Finance This book contains a selection of the contributions presented at the conference and its satellite meetings. Its contents reflect the extent, diversity and richness of research areas in the field, both fundamental and applied.

Forecast Verification

Forecast Verification
A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

by Ian T. Jolliffe,David B. Stephenson

  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • Release : 2012-01-25
  • Pages : 288
  • ISBN : 1119961076
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).

Weather Services for the Nation

Weather Services for the Nation
Becoming Second to None

by Committee on the Assessment of the National Weather Service's Modernization Program,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Division on Earth and Life Studies,National Research Council

  • Publisher : National Academies Press
  • Release : 2012-11-16
  • Pages : 69
  • ISBN : 0309259738
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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During the 1980s and 1990s, the National Weather Service (NWS) undertook a major program called the Modernization and Associated Restructuring (MAR). The MAR was officially completed in 2000. No comprehensive assessment of the execution of the MAR plan, or comparison of the promised benefits of the MAR to its actual impact, had ever been conducted. Therefore, Congress asked the National Academy of Sciences to conduct an end-to-end assessment. That report, The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment, concluded that the MAR was a success. Now, twelve years after the official completion of the MAR, the challenges faced by the NWS are no less important than those of the pre-MAR era. The three key challenges are: 1) Keeping Pace with accelerating scientific and technological advancement, 2) Meeting Expanding and Evolving User Needs in an increasingly information centric society, and 3) Partnering with an Increasingly Capable Enterprise that has grown considerably since the time of the MAR. Weather Services for the Nation presents three main recommendations for responding to these challenges. These recommendations will help the NWS address these challenges, making it more agile and effective. This will put it on a path to becoming second to none at integrating advances in science and technology into its operations and at meeting user needs, leading in some areas and keeping pace in others. It will have the highest quality core capabilities among national weather services. It will have a more agile organizational structure and workforce that allow it to directly or indirectly reach more end-users, save more lives, and help more businesses. And it will have leveraged these capabilities through the broader enterprise. This approach will make possible societal benefits beyond what the NWS budget alone allows.

Understanding Climate

Understanding Climate
A Strategy for Climate Modeling and Predictability Research

by Otto Thiele,Robert A. Schiffer

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 1985
  • Pages : 32
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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