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Superforecasting

Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner

  • Publisher : Random House
  • Release : 2015-09-24
  • Pages : 352
  • ISBN : 1448166594
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner

  • Publisher : Crown Publishing Group (NY)
  • Release : 2015-09-15
  • Pages : 352
  • ISBN : 9780804136693
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

SUMMARY - Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction By Philip E. Tetlock And Dan Gardner

SUMMARY - Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction By Philip E. Tetlock And Dan Gardner
A Book

by Shortcut Edition

  • Publisher : Shortcut Edition
  • Release : 2021-06-05
  • Pages : 35
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. By reading this summary, you will discover the art of making reliable and rigorous forecasts. You will also discover that : many experts give forecasts that are too vague and difficult to verify; the field of forecasting is sorely lacking in rigorous evaluations; the best forecasters rely on method and not on innate abilities; any forecast must be supported by a numerical probability, an assumption with clearly defined terms; a good forecaster is rigorous, intellectually humble and able to consider a multitude of perspectives. In the media as well as in government, forecasting plays a central role. They have an impact on all the strategies of leaders. A battery of influential experts is therefore constantly in demand. But how reliable are their diagnoses? Very competent people often make vague or even erroneous estimates. "On the other hand, some less well-known forecasters reveal surprising results. Here is their secret: they don't have any particular gift, but they do have a method. *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!

Tetlock and Gardner's Superforecasting Summary

Tetlock and Gardner's Superforecasting Summary
The Art and Science of Prediction Summary

by Ant Hive Media

  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release : 2016-04-23
  • Pages : 28
  • ISBN : 9781532905490
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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This is a Summary of Tetlock and Gardner's New York Times Bestseller: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people-including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer-who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future-whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life-and is destined to become a modern classic. Available in a variety of formats, this summary is aimed for those who want to capture the gist of the book but don't have the current time to devour all 352 pages. You get the main summary along with all of the benefits and lessons the actual book has to offer. This summary is not intended to be used without reference to the original book.

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review

by Instaread

  • Publisher : Instaread
  • Release : 2015-12-14
  • Pages : 37
  • ISBN : 1944195483
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts… PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways

A Joosr Guide to ... Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

A Joosr Guide to ... Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner
The Art and Science of Prediction

by Joosr

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2016
  • Pages : 18
  • ISBN : 9781785673405
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Superforecasting

Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2015-09-29
  • Pages : 340
  • ISBN : 9781101905562
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Summary of Superforecasting

Summary of Superforecasting
By Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Includes Analysis

by Instaread

  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release : 2016-02-18
  • Pages : 40
  • ISBN : 9781530127016
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts... Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting: Overview of the book Important People Key Takeaways Analysis of Key Takeaways About the Author With Instaread, you can get the key takeaways and analysis of a book in 15 minutes. We read every chapter, identify the key takeaways and analyze them for your convenience.

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review

by Instaread

  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release : 2015-12-14
  • Pages : 36
  • ISBN : 9781522758204
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts... Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting: Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways About the Author With Instaread, you can get the key takeaways and analysis of a book in 15 minutes. We read every chapter, identify the key takeaways and analyze them for your convenience.

Guide to Philip E. Tetlock's Superforecasting

Guide to Philip E. Tetlock's Superforecasting
A Book

by Eureka

  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release : 2017-03-24
  • Pages : 38
  • ISBN : 9781544918228
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS A GUIDE TO THE ORIGINAL BOOK. Guide to Philip E. Tetlock's & et al Superforecasting Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts... Inside this companion: -Overview of the book -Important People -Key Insights -Analysis of Key Insights

Summary of Superforecasting

Summary of Superforecasting
By Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Includes Analysis

by Instaread Summaries

  • Publisher : Idreambooks
  • Release : 2016-04-05
  • Pages : 36
  • ISBN : 9781945251832
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:* Overview of the book* Important People* Key Takeaways* Analysis of Key Takeaways

Probability, Choice, and Reason

Probability, Choice, and Reason
A Book

by Leighton Vaughan Williams

  • Publisher : CRC Press
  • Release : 2021-09-15
  • Pages : 310
  • ISBN : 1000458873
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging discussion of some of the key ideas of probabilistic and statistical thinking Many classic and novel problems, paradoxes, and puzzles An exploration of some of the big questions involving the use of choice and reason in an uncertain world The application of probability, statistics, and Bayesian methods to a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, law, and medicine Exercises, references, and links for those wishing to cross-reference or to probe further Solutions to exercises at the end of the book This book should serve as an invaluable and fascinating resource for university, college, and high school students who wish to extend their reading, as well as for teachers and lecturers who want to liven up their courses while retaining academic rigour. It will also appeal to anyone who wishes to develop skills with numbers or has an interest in the many statistical and other paradoxes that permeate our lives. Indeed, anyone studying the sciences, social sciences, or humanities on a formal or informal basis will enjoy and benefit from this book.

Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review

by Instaread

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2015
  • Pages : 37
  • ISBN : 9781522758204
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The Open Society and Its Complexities

The Open Society and Its Complexities
A Book

by Gerald Gaus

  • Publisher : Oxford University Press
  • Release : 2021-08-06
  • Pages : 288
  • ISBN : 0190648996
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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A mere two decades ago it was widely assumed that liberal democracy and the Open Society it created had decisively won their century-long struggle against authoritarianism. Although subsequent events have shocked many, F.A. Hayek would not have been surprised that we are in many ways disoriented by the society we have created. As he understood it, the Open Society was a precarious achievement in many ways at odds with our deepest moral sentiments. His path-breaking analyses argued that the Open Society runs against our evolved attraction to "tribalism" that the Open Society is too complex for moral justification; and that its self-organized complexity defies attempts at democratic governance. In his final, wide-ranging book, Gerald Gaus critically reexamines Hayek's analyses. Drawing on diverse work in social and moral science, Gaus argues that Hayek's program was manifestly prescient and strikingly sophisticated, always identifying real and pressing problems. Yet, Gaus maintains, Hayek underestimated the resources of human morality and the Open Society to cope with the challenges he perceived. Gaus marshals formal models and empirical evidence to show that our Open Society is grounded on moral foundations of human cooperation originating in our distant evolutionary past, but has built upon them a complex and diverse society that requires us to rethink both the nature of moral justification and the meaning of democratic self-governance. In these fearful, angry and inwardly-looking times, when political philosophy has itself become a hostile exchange between ideological camps, The Open Society and Its Complexities shows how moral and ideological diversity, so far from being the enemy of a free and open society, can be its foundation.

Bulletproof Problem Solving

Bulletproof Problem Solving
The One Skill That Changes Everything

by Charles Conn,Robert McLean

  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • Release : 2019-03-04
  • Pages : 320
  • ISBN : 1119553040
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Complex problem solving is the core skill for 21st Century Teams Complex problem solving is at the very top of the list of essential skills for career progression in the modern world. But how problem solving is taught in our schools, universities, businesses and organizations comes up short. In Bulletproof Problem Solving: The One Skill That Changes Everything you’ll learn the seven-step systematic approach to creative problem solving developed in top consulting firms that will work in any field or industry, turning you into a highly sought-after bulletproof problem solver who can tackle challenges that others balk at. The problem-solving technique outlined in this book is based on a highly visual, logic-tree method that can be applied to everything from everyday decisions to strategic issues in business to global social challenges. The authors, with decades of experience at McKinsey and Company, provide 30 detailed, real-world examples, so you can see exactly how the technique works in action. With this bulletproof approach to defining, unpacking, understanding, and ultimately solving problems, you’ll have a personal superpower for developing compelling solutions in your workplace. Discover the time-tested 7-step technique to problem solving that top consulting professionals employ Learn how a simple visual system can help you break down and understand the component parts of even the most complex problems Build team brainstorming techniques that fight cognitive bias, streamline workplanning, and speed solutions Know when and how to employ modern analytic tools and techniques from machine learning to game theory Learn how to structure and communicate your findings to convince audiences and compel action The secrets revealed in Bulletproof Problem Solving will transform the way you approach problems and take you to the next level of business and personal success.

Engaging Eager and Reluctant Learners

Engaging Eager and Reluctant Learners
STEM Learning in Action

by Dennis Adams,Mary Hamm

  • Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
  • Release : 2017-03-08
  • Pages : 170
  • ISBN : 1475834470
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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This book will help educators design STEM programs and lessons that foster teamwork and thinking while getting students actively involved in their own learning. There are many practical ideas and lesson plans that will help teachers reach both eager and reluctant learners. The suggestions for STEM curriculum and instruction are research based and standards driven. This book looks at collaborative learning, differentiation, and diversity all the while building instruction in the STEM subjects and good hands-on materials. This is done in a way that is designed to help every student feel successful and part of the class as a whole. It shows a deep respect for the unique relationship between teachers and their students as they try to navigate their way into the future. Suggestions are designed to help learners question, analyze, interpret, problem solve, and discover. The STEM subjects of science, technology, engineering, and math are essential to understanding the world of today and the world of tomorrow. The authors view is that it takes more than innovation alone; for innovation to be useful, products of the imagination must be arranged in ways that allow them to be used to solve real world problems.

Disaster Forensics

Disaster Forensics
Understanding Root Cause and Complex Causality

by Anthony J. Masys

  • Publisher : Springer
  • Release : 2016-09-03
  • Pages : 409
  • ISBN : 3319418491
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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This book aims to uncover the root causes of natural and man-made disasters by going beyond the typical reports and case studies conducted post-disaster. It opens the black box of disasters by presenting ‘forensic analysis approaches’ to disasters, thereby revealing the complex causality that characterizes them and explaining how and why hazards do, or do not, become disasters. This yields ‘systemic’ strategies for managing disasters. Recently the global threat landscape has seen the emergence of high impact, low probability events. Events like Hurricane Katrina, the Great Japan Earthquake and tsunami, Hurricane Sandy, Super Typhoon Haiyan, global terrorist activities have become the new norm. Extreme events challenge our understanding regarding the interdependencies and complexity of the disaster aetiology and are often referred to as Black Swans. Between 2002 and 2011, there were 4130 disasters recorded that resulted from natural hazards around the world. In these, 1,117,527 people perished and a minimum of US$1,195 billion in losses were reported. In the year 2011 alone, 302 disasters claimed 29,782 lives; affected 206 million people and inflicted damages worth a minimum of estimated US$366 billion.

Unlocking Creativity

Unlocking Creativity
How to Solve Any Problem and Make the Best Decisions by Shifting Creative Mindsets

by Michael A. Roberto

  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • Release : 2019-01-07
  • Pages : 208
  • ISBN : 111954579X
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Tear down the obstacles to creative innovation in your organization Unlocking Creativity is an exploration of the creative process and how organizations can clear the way for innovation. In many organizations, creative individuals face stubborn resistance to new ideas. Managers and executives oftentimes reject innovation and unconventional approaches due to misplaced allegiance to the status quo. Questioning established practices or challenging prevailing sentiments is frequently met with stiff resistance. In this climate of stifled creativity and inflexible adherence to conventional wisdom, potentially game-changing ideas are dismissed outright. Senior leaders claim to value creativity, yet often lack the knowledge to provide a creative framework. Unlocking Creativity offers effective methods and real-world examples of how the most successful organizations create cultures of innovation and experimentation. Best-selling author and scholar Michael Roberto presents a thorough investigation of organizational obstacles to creative thought. Highly relevant to the growth crises many enterprises face in today’s economic landscape, this book examines how to break barriers to spark creativity and foster new ideas. This insightful and informative work allows business executives, senior managers, and organization leaders to: Recognize the six organizational mindsets that impede creativity and innovation Learn how to tear down the barriers that obstruct the creative process Create an environment that allows talented people to thrive Encourage creative collaboration in teams throughout an organization Leaders do not have to conceive innovative ideas, but rather open the path for curious and creative employees within their organization. Unlocking Creativity: How to Solve Any Problem and Make the Best Decisions aids organizations in removing obstacles to the creative process and helps to form an atmosphere of imagination and innovation.

Who Wins in a Digital World?

Who Wins in a Digital World?
Strategies to Make Your Organization Fit for the Future

by MIT Sloan Management Review

  • Publisher : MIT Press
  • Release : 2019-03-05
  • Pages : 200
  • ISBN : 0262536749
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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How organizations can adapt to a constantly changing business environment by being flexible but focused, embracing change, and moving fast. In the new digital world, the unknowns are never-ending. Our ability to embrace the demands of change has become a prerequisite for success. It's not easy. We don't work the way we did last year. Next year, it will all change again. If an organization doesn't embrace the realities of change, it will be under siege from those that do. Who Wins in a Digital World explains how organizations can adapt to a constantly changing business environment by being flexible but focused, embracing change in all its messiness, and moving fast. In articles that originally appeared in MIT Sloan Management Review, experts from business and academia discuss digital adaptability, explaining how both organizations and individuals need the ability to excel in what their roles will become as technology and their competitive ecosystem evolve. They highlight strategies and mindsets that can foster change, including boldness in the face of digitization, a focus on collaboration, and an artificial intelligence game plan. And they explore the need for speed, with one contributor declaring: “Implement first, ask questions later (or not at all).” Once an organization accepts the fact that technological change is ongoing and inevitable, it becomes more about opportunity and less about challenge. This book shows that change can be stimulating, exhilarating, and something to be welcomed. Contributors Stephen J. Andriole, Jacques Bughin, Thomas H. Davenport, Nathan Furr, Lynn J. Good, David Kiron, Edward E. Lawler III, Vikram Mahidhar, Paul Michelman, Jeanne Ross, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Andrew Shipilov, Charles Sull, Donald Sull, Philip E. Tetlock, Stefano Turconi, Nicolas van Zeebroeck, Peter Weill, Thomas Williams, Stephanie L. Woerner, Christopher G. Worley, James Yoder

The Best Writing on Mathematics 2017

The Best Writing on Mathematics 2017
A Book

by Mircea Pitici

  • Publisher : Princeton University Press
  • Release : 2017-10-31
  • Pages : 248
  • ISBN : 1400888557
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The year's finest mathematics writing from around the world This annual anthology brings together the year’s finest mathematics writing from around the world. Featuring promising new voices alongside some of the foremost names in the field, The Best Writing on Mathematics 2017 makes available to a wide audience many articles not easily found anywhere else—and you don’t need to be a mathematician to enjoy them. These writings offer surprising insights into the nature, meaning, and practice of mathematics today. They delve into the history, philosophy, teaching, and everyday occurrences of math, and take readers behind the scenes of today’s hottest mathematical debates. Here Evelyn Lamb describes the excitement of searching for incomprehensibly large prime numbers, Jeremy Gray speculates about who would have won math’s highest prize—the Fields Medal—in the nineteenth century, and Philip Davis looks at mathematical results and artifacts from a business and marketing viewpoint. In other essays, Noson Yanofsky explores the inherent limits of knowledge in mathematical thinking, Jo Boaler and Lang Chen reveal why finger-counting enhances children’s receptivity to mathematical ideas, and Carlo Séquin and Raymond Shiau attempt to discover how the Renaissance painter Fra Luca Pacioli managed to convincingly depict his famous rhombicuboctahedron, a twenty-six-sided Archimedean solid. And there’s much, much more. In addition to presenting the year’s most memorable writings on mathematics, this must-have anthology includes a bibliography of other notable writings and an introduction by the editor, Mircea Pitici. This book belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in where math has taken us—and where it is headed.