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The Black Swan: Second Edition

The Black Swan: Second Edition
The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility"

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  • Publisher : Random House
  • Release : 2010-05-11
  • Pages : 480
  • ISBN : 0679604189
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.” A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
The Impact of the Highly Improbable

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb,Nassim Nicholas Taleb, PH.D., MBA

  • Publisher : Random House Incorporated
  • Release : 2007
  • Pages : 366
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.

Stalking the Black Swan

Stalking the Black Swan
Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility

by Kenneth A. Posner

  • Publisher : Columbia University Press
  • Release : 2010
  • Pages : 267
  • ISBN : 9780231150484
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard?many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal?our computers and our minds?Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
The Impact of the Highly Improbable

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2007
  • Pages : 366
  • ISBN : 9780713999952
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Startling, Profound And Universal, The Black Swan Will Change The Way You Look At The World. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Bestselling Author Of Fooled By Randomness, Black Swans Underlie Almost Everything, From The Rise Of Religions, To Events In Our Own Personal Lives. A Black Swan Is A Highly Improbable Event With Three Principle Characteristics: Its Unpredictability; Its Massive Impact; And, After It Has Happened, Our Desire To Make It Appear Less Random And More Predictable Than It Was. The Astonishing Success Of Google Was A Black Swan; So Was 9/11. Why Do We Not Acknowledge The Phenomenon Of Black Swans? Why Are We Unable To Estimate Risk: Falling Vulnerable To The Impulse To Simplify, Narrate And Categorize, Rather Than Opening Ourselves Up To The &Lsquo;Impossible&Rsquo;? For Years, Taleb Has Studied How We Fool Ourselves Into Thinking We Know More Than We Actually Do, Restricting Our Knowledge To The Irrelevant And Inconsequential, So That Large Events Continue To Surprise Us An Shape Our World. We May Even Be Hard-Wired To Learn Specifics When We Should Be Focused On Generalities. Now In This Revelatory Book, He Explains Everything We Know About What We Don&Rsquo;T Know. Taleb Is A Vastly Entertaining Writer, With Wit, Irreverence, And Unusual Stories To Tell. He Has A Polymathic Command Of Subjects Ranging From Cognitive Science To Business To Probability Theory. The Black Swan Is A Landmark Book-It Might Even Be A Black Swan.

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
A Book

by Thomas Mann

  • Publisher : Univ of California Press
  • Release : 1990-10-16
  • Pages : 141
  • ISBN : 0520070097
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Thomas Mann's bold and disturbing novella, written in 1952, is the feminine counterpart of his masterpiece Death in Venice. Written from the point of view of a woman in what we might now call mid-life crisis, The Black Swan evinces Mann's mastery of psychological analysis and his compelling interest in the intersection of the physical and the spiritual in human behavior. It is startlingly relevant to current discussions of the politics of the body, male inscriptions of the feminine, and discourse about and of women. The new introduction places this dramatic novella in the context of contemporary feminist and literary concerns, bringing it to the attention of a new generation of readers.

The Black Swan of Paris

The Black Swan of Paris
The heart-breaking, gripping historical thriller for fans of Heather Morris

by Karen Robards

  • Publisher : Hachette UK
  • Release : 2020-06-30
  • Pages : 480
  • ISBN : 1529338220
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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A world at war. A beautiful young star. A mission no one expected. 'A truly outstanding novel, brilliantly written, that captured me and held me in its grip from page one. The Black Swan of Paris reminds us of the power of love, hope and courage' Heather Morris, #1 bestselling author of The Tattooist of Auschwitz Paris, 1944 Celebrated singer Genevieve Dumont is both a star and a smokescreen. An unwilling darling of the Nazis, her position of privilege allows her to go undetected as an ally to the resistance. When her estranged mother, Lillian de Rocheford, is captured by Nazis, Genevieve is shaken. She knows it won't be long before the Gestapo succeeds in torturing information out of Lillian that will derail the upcoming allied invasion. The resistance movement is tasked with silencing her by any means necessary - including assassination. But Genevieve refuses to let her mother become yet one more victim of the war. Reuniting with her long-lost sister, she must find a way to navigate the perilous cross-currents of Occupied France undetected - and in time to save Lillian's life. For fans of Danielle Steele's The Spy, Jane Thynne's Black Roses and Heather Morris' The Tattooist of Auschwitz, this exquisite novel illuminates three women's strength, courage and capacity for unconditional love. PRAISE FOR THE BLACK SWAN OF PARIS 'Emotional and powerful' Pam Jenoff, bestselling author of The Lost Girls of Paris 'Beautifully written and completely absorbing. ' Noelle Salazar, bestselling author of The Flight Girls 'An extraordinarily suspenseful, emotional read' Kelly Rimmer, bestselling author of The Things We Cannot Say Reader Reviews: 'Perfect! This novel was the first I've read by this author but I will definitely be reading more of her work. It was pacy, exciting, heart-breaking in places, with a truly believable romance sub-plot that was centred around characters I cared about.' 'A high octane read which is a real page turner and captures the heightened tension of the war perfectly. A brilliant read that I would recommend.' 'This is an excellent WWII historical fiction novel and it is for anyone that loves a good plot, suspense, and anyone that loves to read about the impressive underdog of the Resistance in France during the Occupation.' Robards paints a beautiful capture of the true Parisian Paris during WWII. Her first historical fiction should be praised for the attention to detail, emotional and action packed novel.'

Incerto

Incerto
Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  • Publisher : Editeurs divers USA
  • Release : 2016-11-08
  • Pages : 1568
  • ISBN : 0399590455
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don't understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes--Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material--are now together in one boxed set. ANTIFRAGILE "Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides."--The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls "antifragile" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we--especially the experts--are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS "[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church."--Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill--the markets--Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES "Taleb's crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems."--Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

SUMMARY - The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

SUMMARY - The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
A Book

by Shortcut Edition

  • Publisher : Shortcut Edition
  • Release : 2021-06-17
  • Pages : 35
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. By reading this summary, you will discover a new way of understanding uncertainty through the concept of the Black Swan. You will also discover : that the Black Swan is a surprising, unpredictable event with far-reaching consequences; why you fail to make predictions; that you are wrong to trust those you consider to be experts in their field; that you can take advantage of uncertainty. The world is made of uncertainties, but man continues to seek to understand and predict it. The more informed society is, the more expert it thinks it is and the more capable it is of understanding the world. However, when it discovers that not all swans are white, its very notion of knowledge is turned upside down. This event, which was very unlikely and with strong consequences, is called by Nassim Nicholas Taleb the "Black Swan". It can lead to success or failure and can make history. How can you approach this phenomenon and take advantage of it in your personal life? *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
A Book

by Mercedes Lackey

  • Publisher : Penguin
  • Release : 2000-05-01
  • Pages : 416
  • ISBN : 1101119063
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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After his wife's untimely death, a powerful sorcerer dedicates his life to seeking revenge against all womankind. He turns his captives into beautiful swans--who briefly regain human form by the fleeting light of the moon. Only Odette, noblest of the enchanted flock, has the courage to confront her captor. But can she gain the allies she needs to free herself and the other swan-maidens from their magical slavery?A monumental tale of loyalty and betrayal, of magic good and evil, of love both carnal and pure, and of the duality of human nature, The Black Swan is a rich tapestry which is sure to become an all-time masterpiece of fantasy.

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Summary)

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Summary)
A Book

by QuickRead,Lea Schullery

  • Publisher : QuickRead.com
  • Release : 2021
  • Pages : 129
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Do you want more free book summaries like this? Download our app for free at https://www.QuickRead.com/App and get access to hundreds of free book and audiobook summaries. The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Just because you haven’t seen something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, right? Well, Nassim Nicholas Taleb uses this exact logic to explain the Black Swans that happen in our society. A Black Swan is an improbable or highly unlikely event that has three principal characteristics. The first two are that it is unpredictable and it carries a massive impact. The third is the ability to construct an explanation after the fact to make it appear less random, and more predictable. Think of events like 9/11 or the invention of Google. These Black Swans, while unpredictable and impactful, could easily be explained in the moments following the event. Black Swans like these underlie almost everything about the world. But why can’t we acknowledge them until after they occur? Well, according to Taleb, humans are simply hardwired to focus on the details rather than see the big picture. We concentrate only on what we know and understand; therefore, we are unable to conceptualize the impossible. As you read, you’ll learn that we can learn a thing or two from turkeys, you'll see how a casino's greatest threat isn't high-rolling gamblers, and how focusing on what we don't know is critical for making informed decisions.

Incerto 5-Book Bundle

Incerto 5-Book Bundle
Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  • Publisher : Random House
  • Release : 2021-05-04
  • Pages : 1872
  • ISBN : 0593243668
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The landmark five-book series—all together in one ebook bundle The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don’t understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This ebook bundle includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME

Black Swan Green

Black Swan Green
A Book

by David Mitchell

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2007
  • Pages : 371
  • ISBN : 9780340822807
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The dazzling novel from critically-acclaimed David Mitchell. Shortlisted for the 2006 Costa Novel Award Longlisted for the Man Booker Prize 2006 January, 1982. Thirteen-year-old Jason Taylor - covert stammerer and reluctant poet - anticipates a stultifying year in his backwater English village. But he hasn't reckoned with bullies, simmering family discord, the Falklands War, a threatened gypsy invasion and those mysterious entities known as girls. Charting thirteen months in the black hole between childhood and adolescence, this is a captivating novel, wry, painful and vibrant with the stuff of life.

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
A Book

by Richard Selzer

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 199?
  • Pages : 178
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The Black Swan

The Black Swan
The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review

by Instaread

  • Publisher : Instaread
  • Release : 2015-12-14
  • Pages : 38
  • ISBN : 1944195491
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a philosophical treatment of Taleb's research on highly improbable, high-impact events. These events, which Taleb calls “Black Swans,” are so improbable that they are unpredictable. However, pundits and scholars are often inclined to fit such extreme events into a causal narrative after the fact, in order to make history appear more organized… PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Inside this Instaread of The Black Swan:Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways

Incerto

Incerto
Fooled by Randomness, the Black Swan, the Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game

by NASSIM NICHOLAS. TALEB

  • Publisher : Random House Trade
  • Release : 2021-05-04
  • Pages : 1872
  • ISBN : 059324365X
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
GET BOOK

The landmark five-book series--all together in one boxed set The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don't understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This boxed set includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME

Summary of the Black Swan

Summary of the Black Swan
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb Includes Analysis

by Instaread

  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release : 2016-02-18
  • Pages : 42
  • ISBN : 9781530126521
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a philosophical treatment of Taleb's research on highly improbable, high-impact events. These events, which Taleb calls "Black Swans," are so improbable that they are unpredictable. However, pundits and scholars are often inclined to fit such extreme events into a causal narrative after the fact, in order to make history appear more organized... Inside this Instaread of The Black Swan: Overview of the book Important People Key Takeaways Analysis of Key Takeaways About the Author With Instaread, you can get the key takeaways and analysis of a book in 15 minutes. We read every chapter, identify the key takeaways and analyze them for your convenience.

Quicklet on Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan (CliffNotes-like Book Summary and Analysis)

Quicklet on Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan (CliffNotes-like Book Summary and Analysis)
A Book

by Leslie McIntyre

  • Publisher : Hyperink Inc
  • Release : 2012-07-30
  • Pages : 36
  • ISBN : 1614646848
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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ABOUT THE BOOK The first edition of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s second mainstream work, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, was published by Random House in April of 2007. In this book Taleb says many, many things; he warns against the dangers of ignoring outliers and trusting experts; he gives advice on how to position oneself to take advantage of the unexpected; he creates a fictional narrative about an author’s rise to literary stardom; and he draws upon the work of some of his favorite (as well as his most despised) thinkers in the fields of philosophy, mathematics, and psychology. But the thing about The Black Swan that is most likely to grab the contemporary reader’s attention is its apparent prediction of the financial collapse that occurred only a few months after its publication. Though Taleb argues against the validity of economic forecasts, he makes some eerily specific critiques of the banking industry, “just months before the subprime fiasco rocked global markets and led banks to announce at least $208 billion worth of writedowns,” according to Bloomberg News. Any criticisms of The Black Swan seem to fade given the uncanny timing of its release. In the wake of the financial crisis, while other economists cringed at their lack of foresight, Taleb was hailed as a prophet. EXCERPT FROM THE BOOK While we might prefer to believe that the world operates in a linear fashion, Taleb assures us this is not so. Says Taleb, “[N]onlinear relationships are ubiquitous in life. Linear relationships are truly the exception; we focus on them in classrooms and textbooks because they are easier to understand (89).” Chapter Eight Giacomo Casanova’s Unfailing Luck In Chapter Eight, Taleb introduces the concept of silent evidence. Like the antilibrary, silent evidence emphasizes what is not known over what is. Essentially, silent evidence are those instances which do not produce a Black Swan and thus do not receive acknowledgement. As an example, Taleb points to the many, many talented writers who never get their big break and whose work, therefore, is never inducted into the literary canon. Since such works are generally inaccessible, we tend to discount their relevance and focus solely on the Black Swan works that did, through some combination of talent and good fortune, secure their place in literature. In essence we tend to give disproportionate weight to the stories of those who succeed in some manner or another -- by making a medical breakthrough, by becoming a millionaire, or, in some cases, by simply surviving. The tendency to ignore silent evidence (the failures), Taleb says, results in a distortion bias, “the difference between what you see and what is there... Buy the book to continue reading! Follow @hyperink on Twitter! Visit us at www.facebook.com/hyperink! Go to www.hyperink.com to join our newsletter and get awesome freebies! CHAPTER OUTLINE Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan + Introduction to The Black Swan + Introducing Nassim Nicholas Taleb + The Black Swan: An Introductory Overview + Chapter Summaries + ...and much more

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Key Takeaways, Analysis and Review

by Instaread

  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release : 2015-12-14
  • Pages : 40
  • ISBN : 9781522762928
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a philosophical treatment of Taleb's research on highly improbable, high-impact events. These events, which Taleb calls "Black Swans," are so improbable that they are unpredictable. However, pundits and scholars are often inclined to fit such extreme events into a causal narrative after the fact, in order to make history appear more organized... Inside this Instaread of The Black Swan: Overview of the book Important People Key Takeaways Analysis of Key Takeaways About the Author With Instaread, you can get the key takeaways and analysis of a book in 15 minutes. We read every chapter, identify the key takeaways and analyze them for your convenience.

An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan

An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan
The Impact of the Highly Improbable

by Eric Lybeck

  • Publisher : CRC Press
  • Release : 2017-07-05
  • Pages : 92
  • ISBN : 1351351192
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Good creative thinkers resist orthodox ideas, take new lines of enquiry, and generally come at problems from the kinds of angles almost no one else could. And, what is more, when the ideas of creative thinkers are convincing, they can reshape an entire topic, and change the orthodoxy for good. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is precisely such a book: an entertaining, polemical, creative attack on how people in general, and economic experts in particular view the possibility of catastrophic events. Taleb writes with rare creative verve for someone who is also an expert in mathematics, finance, and epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge), and he martials all his skills to turn standard reasoning inside out. His central point is that far from being unimportant, extremely rare events are frequently the most important ones of all: it is highly improbable, but highly consequential occurrences – what he calls Black Swans – that have shaped history most. As a result, Taleb concludes, improbability is not a reason to act as if a possible event does not matter. Rather, it should inspire the opposite reaction.

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
A Book

by Raphael Sabatini

  • Publisher : House of Stratus
  • Release : 2014-11-30
  • Pages : 236
  • ISBN : 0755153103
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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When Priscilla Harradine travels back to England on the Centaur she has no cause to expect her journey will be remotely eventful. But also on board is Charles de Bernis – a mysterious and intriguing buccaneer. Just as their friendship blossoms, a dark figure from de Bernis’ past emerges to propel them into a thrilling and perilous adventure.